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Monday, November 10, 2008

How poor leadership leads to poverty.

3 years back, every one was screaming the India shining story. How India would push a GDP growth of 8+% and roar its way out of poverty. And today in 2008 we say we would be happy if we achieve 6+% and we would be ok. What happened, why are we suddenly so pessimistic. What happened to a country that was roaring, resembling the Tiger.
Its poor leadership. Even though I have been a proponent of Chidambaram and the UPA for the past 4 years. Today I feel I am smarter than them. A year ago they could not foresee what is happening today. But I could. Ha. People around know it. Then why am I bragging so much? I want to introspect, why even after knowing all this I am at break-even in my portfolio, playing all but defense. Let me examine my thesis.
In 2006, when we were reporting growth rates of 8%, they was a problem of inflation. The cost of money was going up. The cost of housing was going up. The cost of food and oil was going up. Everyone was telling me. Oh, we have a housing shortage. Standard of Living in India is going up. People are making more money. Salaries are growing 10% +. Thus cost of housing is going up and therefore you should invest in property. With a housing boom, came inflation in Cement and Steel prices. There was a steady inflation in petrol prices.
I began to think what is it that is required to fight inflation. An increase in supply. If we flood a market with something then prices fall. Hence we should increase supply. But how do we flood the market. If something is expensive and the margin of profit is high. People get interested in it. If I think I can make money doing something, I would invest in it. Thing is 20% profit is good. 19% is ok. 15% is good, 14% is ok. This feeling of ok, brings in more players. People who think they can survive with a lower margin of profit even is someone else is making better margins. The threshold of course is zero. Nobody wants to enter any market at a loss.

Now what does our government do.

1. Fixes the price of petrol. Makes upstream companies like ONGC pay a subsidy. Tell me if I have to sell petrol at a loss, will I invest in such a business. The consequence is that besides the state run oil marketing companies nobody else retails fuels. There is no competition. Upstream companies are fearful of India, they cannot trust that India will not force them to provide subsidies or discount to Oil refining companies. ONGC is a scapegoat. Paying a subsidy for no reason.
Now lets examine another consequence, no major private participation in oil drilling and exploration. India is no Saudi Arabia with lots of potential oil deposits. There are few and therefore it is risky places. Oil exploration today is most off shore. Its expensive to drill offshore, even Reliance cannot find Rigs. Most Rigs (Aban Offshore) have made a killing. By our policy of fixing the price of petroleum products we have basically constrained our supply. This would get more and more expensive. Just think today oil prices have fallen 45%, Prices in India have not fallen, and they have fallen by 45% in the US. Bottom line is if you increase supply, prices fall. But prices have to rise for new players to invest. Otherwise you are at the mercy of Russia and Saudi Arabia. But India doesn’t get it.
2. We fix prices of fertilizers: As a result few people want to invest in fertilizers, as one cannot pass the prices of fertilizer. We are facing shortages in food, as farmers are not sowing because fertilizer is not available.

3. The government does the same with Cement and Steel. It bans exports and frees up imports.
My point is one must let the market decide. Sure you can regulate the market to ensure people play by the rules. But don’t change the rules to benefit one over the other. Doing so de-motivates people. And they stop investing.
Everyone wants to make money. People invest to make money. Giving subsidies, soft loans, fixing prices, increasing interest rates. All these tactics manipulate the market favoring someone over the other.
Think about it, after 5 years, the things that the government tried to protect us against “Inflation” are stronger. Houses are still expensive. Loans are still expensive. Petrol is still expensive. Food is still expensive.
One can argue that they are not too expensive. But we never encouraged supply. Now even if we cut interest rates, these are not less expensive. We simply did not create the supply. Why would a cement manufacturer increase supply, when the government can put curbs on him anytime. We need to free up the system, we cannot be socialist and capitalist at the same time. We have to choose where we want to go.
Jim Rogers whom I faithfully follow says India will collapse into small countries. I think its true. We are seeing it. How much I wish it will not happen.
If we have to stay as a nation we have to fight inflation. By increasing supply. We have to provide the markets the pricing power.
For example, if the stock market is free to decide prices, people are happy when prices of IPOs hit the roof, the same people are unhappy when commodity prices hit the roof. Once many IPOs hit the market the prices of IPOs eventually comes down. That is because there was too much supply. The same would happen to commodities.
Inspite of the fact I knew that we were in a bubble. I did not exit my position. Maybe it was a feeling when you are up 300%, how bad can it get. At max 50%. My friends, I am at break-even (Only because I shorted the market heavily with the Hedge Funds in Oct.).
I remain short on this market. I think we are done for 2009. More jobs will be lost. And the market will grind towards 2000 (Nifty). And when people accept that they are doomed. We would have a bottom. Bottoms don’t happen fast. They happen when there is utter despair (No hope). Right now there is Hope. People think the stimulus packages, interest rate cuts will help. I wish governments could change fortunes. But they never do.

Bottom Line: Buy commodities on every correction. Gold, Agriculture, Oil. They are in short supply. Sell the stock market (Esp. expensive companies). Do not do something you don’t understand.

Sunday, August 31, 2008

Kashmir: Paradise Lost.

Last few weeks we all have witnessed the violence in Jammu and Kashmir. The media potrayed both sides of the story. But what the media did not potray was the history of J & K. I remember when I was in school, we were never told about this dispute between India and Pakistan. School text books used to show the political map of India. In standard 10, the history book mentioned the divided, where it said Pakistan has occupied 1/3rd of Kashmir and China has occupied Asai Chin. I was bewildered by these statements, I asked my parents what this meant. To my surprise they did not know of this.
The Indian government always had this policy of hiding the real issues. Waiting for them to explode. Since 1995 we hear the word LOC and wonder why media did not cover this earlier.

To me Kashmir is a disputed area. The very creation of Pakistan was to integrate the Muslim majority areas which included Kashmir. I think as long as Mahatma Gandhi was alive the concept of the two nations was alive. As soon as he died. This idea was abandoned and the idea "Might is right" was imposed.

Today things are out of hand. There is a deep hatred. This cannot go unless some form of autonomy is provided to Kashmir. I believe there is going to be no peace, unless India talks.

India is strong, stronger than Pakistan. But have we become arrogant with pride. Partition is never a solution. Integration is a solution, but I cite the Examples of Yugoslavia, Czechosolvakia and the USSR. These were multi-ethnic and multi religious countries. All have but collapsed. The governments tried their best to hold them together by force. This resulted in a large loss of life.
I see that happening in India too. It bleeds, economically and socially.

Fear and Hate destroy nations. Nation building cannot rest on these foundations. Is it pride, or false pride.

The Eagles of our society should see where are they taking people to. Jim Rogers as person whose wisdom I admire, believes India will collapse into smaller states.

I see it visible. The government has to provide some autonomy esp with regard to taxes to the states. The rise of regional parties symbolises the aspirations of the people on local issues. National issues are less important to the people.

Kashmir has been lost, lets not loose ourselves.

Thursday, May 31, 2007

How India is getting its Oil story wrong.

They say Oil is Black Gold. They say cheap gas (petrol) made America what it is today. It is true. Having lived in America for about 3 years, as a student I had a car. I used to travel. Buy cheap fuel, spend on eating out. No place seemed distant. Leaving the home on the weekend, seemed so easy. American roads were always full of traffic. Cars, Cars and Cars. The economy of many places, maybe not exotic or historical as India was developed on tourism, large supermarkets (Discount Stores), I believed that cheap fuel made all this possible. If you can make people leave their houses, you can make them spend. When they enter any market, whether they like it or not they will spend, maybe on eating on clothes or something. This spending, allows businesses to make money, people to get employment. Retail is a very large employer and revenue generator.

Take away the cheap fuel, people travel less, they walk to nearby places, they walk into stores which are not innovative or effective and tend to buy less. So it makes me feel, if fuel was cheap and cars were readily available so many more people would be out of their houses, spending money, feeling good about. But ah, cheap fuel.

In India, the fuel market is heavily regulated. India produces 30% of the Oil it requires. The Indian Oil marketing
PSU supply 98% of the Indian market. And what does the government do, it decides the prices of fuel to the consumers. LPG, Kerosene are subsidized to some extent, and all the fuel prices are decided by the government depending on their whims and fancy.

If I see the world wide oil market, prices of oil are going up. Due to increased demand and a very tight supply. This stems from unrest in Nigeria (a very large source of sweet crude), falling production in oil wells in the US and UK. Belligerence of Venezuela. Instability in Iraq, oil mafia in Russia and Saudi Arabia (who will not let the world know how much oil reserve they have). China, India,
ASEAN are the world's booming economies, citizens starved of luxury are increasingly buying into whatever cars, bikes they can get hold off. Bigger cars, Bigger bikes. From 800cc cars to 1.6L cars, from 100cc bikes to 150cc bikes. These countries will drive demand for oil higher. Along with this the artificial fuel subsidy the government provides by keeping prices of petrol low will make matters worst.

How can one decide the price of a commodity when one does not produce it and requires it so badly?

Once I bought the stocks of
Kochi Refineries, a excellent wealth creator, unfortunately I bought it at a time when there was a talk of it merger with BPCL, this would lead to good synergies as on marketed the fuel the other produced, this was good. But Oil prices rose very fast during that period. The government froze petrol prices, the loss in prices had to be borne by BPCL, which moved in the range of 40,000 crore. All the talk of Indian shining and 8.5% growth in GDP is meaningless without the account of such a staggering loss. Now who pays for this loss, we all do, when, very soon and some of which we already have.

Let me think, will I look for a oil well to cater to India
's needs, if India tells me you have to pay a cess for the crude you produce. Will I put up a refinery if the government tells me hey you need to give discount. If the Americans are ready to buy what I produce at a price I want will I produce it for India or America.
As in any country there are smart people and there are unfortunate people. Lets look at the unfortunate people (Cause there are many of them). The first loser
Kochi refineries, produces Petrol with a capacity utilization of 100%. Forced to give discount on petrol to BPCL and or marketers. Why it is just a service provider, sources crude deliver petrol. Second loser BPCL, HPCL, Indian Oil. Forced to sell petrol, diesel at a predetermined price. Why. They only provide a service. Final loser ONGC, told to pay cess on the crude they produce, second told to provide a discount to the down stream companies. All this for operating in India. Why would somebody invest money in such a place in the oil sector.
So the government, issues Oil bonds to
BPCL, HPCL and IOC. Whose money is it. The Indian Tax payer. Bonds issued at 7% interest for 15 years. Told the same bonds are valued at 8% (neat profit for the PSUs). So this money gets locked at a very low interest rate for a long time to come. The government makes practically nothing. The companies can default on these bonds. The money is used to pay for working capital requirements (Imagine to run BPCL, I have borrow money), start new refineries (that in future will also give the same discounts). I fail to understand who will invest in India in Oil. When the country will require much more oil to fuel its growing middle class.
But there is a silver lining, there are bright and smart people who operate within the Indian constitution and make money and will make more money. Who but Reliance Industries. How do they make money. Its clear that Indian crude is difficult to get, first there very little, its not very good (sour crude) and third the government wants
cess and other crazy things. Indian market heavily regulated and prices are kept low. So get the oil from abroad (Saudi Arabia), refine it here (Use cheap labour, lax environmental laws, cheap land) and export to the USA (no new refinery will be built in the USA anymore, due to environmental regulations, and high labour cost... the same with Europe). Ah ha, Bingo you got it right, now to add icing to the cake, a huge tax break for 15 years from the Indian government for setting something for Export only in a SEZ (The government wants dollars whose value is falling). Large breaks from Gujarat government for providing employment in the state. A win-win situation. All you need to do is to work hard, do your job and expect a windfall. Reliance Petroleum limited is this idea. Brilliant, simply brilliant. And it is going to prove it. At least I believe so.
BPCL now wants to put a refinery (Bina) on the same lines expect it is not for exporting crude, HPCL (Bhatinda)... Plus these companies have to sell cheap petrol. (a lose situation).
Another company Cairn Energy which made India's biggest oil find in 20 years is told to pipe its crude from
Rajasthan to Mangalore through a special pipeline. It is a crazy idea. Then they are told OK, make a small refinery, finally they are told cut your production. Can you attract investment when you make such demands. If today the American government says OK let drill in Alaska, there will be a line of people with money. In India you say the same, people will want government tax breaks, special treatment.... We have to do it right. We have to clear all subsidies on fuel, we have to tell people it profitable to be invested in Oil and Gas in India and that you can make astronomically wealth. I agree we will feel the pinch of this but its worth it. As will any commodity a tight supply can be replaced by a over supply when there is adequate investment. We have to make that, the government does not have enough money to build refineries (These are expensive, cost $6B Reliance PL) and to find oil and gas. Till we have more than what we need. Then we export.
Why do we con
over selves and the Indian people like this, make PSUs pay, people pay through tax and Private sector benefits from the loop holes. I firmly believe days are not far when there will be long queues for petrol and it will have to be rationed in this country. Unless ONGC finds a giant new oil well in India. Which is unlikely, esp when it is going to places like Sudan, Russia to buy stakes in oil wells. Totally unreliable countries.
Anyways, oil is a example of a perfect business whose time has come. Instead of profiting from it we choose to strangle the people who are making money. Though some smart people will still make money, many unfortunate people will get hammered.

Mark my words
RPL is a winner.

Sunday, May 13, 2007

Women - I

One on the most common questions put to me is "Dereck, when are you going to get settled down". I sometimes think, how did we coin this word. When I first tried to understand this questions I found that it is a polite way of asking "Dereck, when are you getting married".

"Why is the world so eager to see Dereck married"...... This question keeps me sleepless nights. But I enjoy it. As much as I tell people "I am so happy to be in this world". I often then that the 21st Century is going to be different when it comes to relationships between men and women. Indian men and women. I see people restless, ambitious and always on the run. Born in a very laid back place (Goa), I have travelled/lived in the north, south, east of India and in the US. I have had a close look at the women and men and how they think about relationships.....

I have had many a flirtings with women. Hmm for a guy who used to fall in love every single day from the age of 15, today I am a little reserved about my feelings. From a guy who used to stand on his hands infront of women, to a friendly sophisticated person today.... I have been to all of it.

All this is fun and great. But when it comes to marriage, I am all but freaked out. The situation of having one woman by you all day and night. To actually be "reporting" to her..... Man, no wonder I am making plans to trek to RoopKund (4200 m above sea-level in the lower Himalayas).

Somethings I understand about women, first listen to them patiently, even if it is her daily chore. My favorite question "Hey how is your day going". Followed by, "What did you do". Nine out of Ten women have told me lots and lots of stories. See there builds a conversation... I normally do ask people out for a coffee/movie only if I am comfortable to talk to the person. But most of my first dates are silent for me. Most women say "Hey you just keep smiling". "Say something". And I am like "Yeah, I am listening to you." On favorite place is Ruby Tuesday, or a Barista (I like the one in South Ex, they have live bands sometimes).
I like women who dress well (not the salwar suit types... I haven't yet had a date with someone who wore it.... hhmmm yeah).... I like western smart casuals.....
So my favorite part in any conversation are "questions", seems like I have a bag of them. "Hey what type of music do you like". "Do you play music". Do you sing...

Ok now you guys are bored.... I have deviated from the point of marriage.... Ok, short and sweet answer.... Indian women have certainly managed to scare me..... Ah ha.... Now this should begin a series of stories......... to the next time I start writing.

Saturday, April 7, 2007

My First Post.

Blogs have been around for quite a while. But the tech-savvy Dereck chooses to ignore its existence. Until now, he met a girl whose blog he read (completely) and was motivated to write his own. I am not a guy who is "To err is human". So there will be no spelling mistakes and grammatical errors. Of course this will not be very literary, but yes you will have a good time reading this blog. Most of what I write comes straight from the heart. Its defines my personality, my purpose in life and my character. This blog is not meant to hurt the sentiments of people, of communities. If I do hurt then I am sorry. I live in a free country, I live in freedom of speech. Hence this blog will be written by a person who is born free.
No matter how much people have tried to influence me, teachers, parents, colleagues... I have always thought independently. Acted independently. Its not that I disrespect others, its that I believe I am a King. And Kings make the rules, seldom live by them.
So everyone who thinks I am a egoistic, is right. Yet I am one of the most lovable persons in the whole world.
So folks have a happy time reading.

Your friendly,
Dereck